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RBC: India will become the "new engine" of global oil demand growth

RBC: India will become the "new engine" of global oil demand growth

July 19, 2016

[China paint information]

helima Croft, head of global commodity strategy at Royal Bank of Canada (RBC), said in an interview on Sunday (July 17) that although the oil market has not yet got rid of the oversupply with strong popularity in China, China, the world's largest consumer, also shows signs of slowing oil demand, but India may become the next key driver of global oil demand

according to recent data, India's oil demand has recorded the fastest growth rate in the past 10 years in the past three months. According to the International Energy Agency (IEA), India's recent oil demand has set a record, consuming more than 4million barrels of oil a day

croft said, "global oversupply and larger economic and political issues (such as Nigeria and Venezuela) will exert downward pressure on oil prices."

at the same time, she predicts that the short-term oil price will fluctuate. Macroeconomic factors such as the recent brexit referendum in the UK and the slowdown in China's economic growth have also put pressure on the crude oil market and depressed the decline of oil prices

however, although China's oil demand has cooled, Croft believes that the increase in Indian demand will help Brent crude oil prices remain in the mid range of $50 a barrel at the end of this year. She predicted that the oil price may be lower than $50 a barrel by the end of the third quarter of this year, but it will rebound again in the fourth quarter

c passive houses will be brought to the market as the next generation of Landsea buildings as soon as possible. Roft added, "we believe that the crude oil market is restoring balance, which means that the era of oversupply will end after the oil market."

as for the supply side, Croft pointed out, "at present, the Middle East member countries of the organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), such as Saudi Arabia and Iraq, have not injected more oil into the oil market as expected."

she also said, "Nigeria is currently suffering from supply disruption due to armed attacks on oil facilities, while Venezuela's oil production continues to decline due to lack of funds and power outages. The situation in this part of the region may become worse in the future."

Croft stressed that Libya's short-term additional supply is also one of the threats to oil prices. Previously, the conflict between hostile armed factions in Libya for oil ports led to the closure of oil supply terminals in the west of the country since 2014. However, according to foreign media reports on Monday (July 18), the Libyan government, currently supported by the United Nations, is negotiating with the armed forces that control the two oil ports to restart the port when the sensitivity of the detectors will drop

Croft believes that "if the terminal in Western Libya reopens, hundreds of thousands of barrels of crude oil will flow into the market, which will bring new downward pressure on oil prices."

but generally speaking, although the fundamentals of the oil market are intertwined, RBC still expects the supply and demand side to gradually improve by the end of 2016

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